My colleague and friend, Denny Carter, seems to have made a memorable statement about running backs, suggesting they might not be considered in the usual way. I’m not entirely certain as I didn’t read the article myself. Going by the headline, it appears the focus is on drafting running backs who receive the ball frequently, with less emphasis on their skill level. In this piece, I’ll make the case that Denny has a point, but it applies selectively. There are instances where a player’s talent plays a major role, and these cases are of great significance. We’ll delve into this matter and eventually explore some specific player perspectives as well.
An Insight I Recently Came Across
In the midst of my content consumption, I stumbled upon a thought-provoking Substack post by Ben Gretch. Within it, he cleverly paraphrased the wisdom of fantasy football luminary Shawn Siegele, encapsulating a crucial notion: “The elite RB seasons almost require 3-4 FPOE per game from the RBs.”
Now, you might wonder, what is FPOE? It stands for fantasy points over expectation, a metric that delves into the intricate world of fantasy football performance. To understand it better, let’s break it down.
At RotoViz, they define the “expectation” part of this metric in a straightforward way. They base it on the average Fantasy Point value of plays that share similarities in terms of down, distance, and field position. Consider a scenario: a first-and-10 carry starting from an opponent’s one-yard line. Naturally, the fantasy point expectation for this play skyrockets. In contrast, a third-and-two dive from a running back’s own 12-yard line barely holds any significance for fantasy enthusiasts.
Now, let’s take Derrick Henry as an example. If, during that third-and-two situation, he breaks free and dashes for an 88-yard touchdown, he dramatically surpasses the anticipated fantasy points for that specific play. RotoViz delves even deeper by applying these calculations to targets or pass attempts.
The concept of Total FPOE per game blends elements of volume and efficiency. To accumulate FPOE within a game, a player must amass a substantial number of touches. However, merely reaching a high volume of touches isn’t enough; they must exceed the expected outcome for each instance, reflecting a measure of efficiency. Devin McIntyre offers an insightful explanation of how running backs manage to outperform their expectations.
In essence, FPOE delves into the intricate dance between the expected and the extraordinary in the realm of fantasy football. It sheds light on the art of turning routine plays into memorable feats, showcasing the fine balance between volume and the magic of exceeding those expectations, all while enriching the narrative of every game.
Unveiling the Quest for Elite Seasons
Delving into the credibility of Siegele’s assertion, the findings are nothing short of remarkable. A decade’s worth of data underscores the accuracy of the claim. Amongst a pool of 38 running backs over the past ten years, those who surpassed 18 half-PPR points per game across a minimum of 10 matches exhibited an average of 3.3 fantasy points over expected per game. Elevating the threshold to 20 points per game, this figure soared to 3.9. Even more intriguing is the pivotal role of surpassing these expectations in crafting a formidable fantasy season. Of these 38 backs, a solitary rusher concluded the season with a negative FPOE. A slight adjustment to a 16-point threshold includes 57 players and merely two additional negative FPOE performers. Notably, all three players who fell short of expectations did so by less than a single point per game.
These revelations offer valuable insights. Firstly, it’s evident that an NFL running back’s opportunities to touch the ball within a season are inherently limited. The examination of the most exceptional fantasy seasons distinguishes those who were heavily involved in the game and managed to amplify their impact. For instance, the emergence of Josh Jacobs in 2022 reshaped the fantasy landscape. Simultaneously, it filters out runners who garnered ample touches but translated them into solid, yet not remarkably captivating, performances.
In essence, these observations spotlight the fascinating interplay between volume and excellence, emphasising how some running backs elevate their game to dazzling heights by maximising each opportunity, while others navigate the realm of productivity without igniting the same electrifying spark.
Unlocking Insight with RotoViz’s Matrix
RotoViz’s Blair Andrews presents a matrix that proves instrumental in comprehending the intricate interplay of the metrics I often emphasise. This matrix serves as a valuable tool for discerning how these metrics interact and influence one another. By examining a running back’s past achievements and, to some extent, their previous showcases of talent, we can forecast their forthcoming opportunities. While POE’s consistency year after year is not incredibly steadfast, it does exhibit a degree of resilience. Furthermore, it excels in projecting future expected points. Pat Kerrane recently highlighted a similar illustration, showcasing how success rate, as gauged by NFL’s Next Gen Stats, effectively predicts players destined to receive more high-value touches in the upcoming seasons.
In essence, this matrix acts as a key to unravelling the intricate web of connections between various metrics, shedding light on how a running back’s track record and potential can harmonise to foretell their future prospects.
When It Truly Counts
Pat Kerrane has astutely emphasized the volatility of the running back position, particularly in the early rounds. This realm boasts game-changing talents alongside those who may not be as fruitful for your roster. In comparison to wide receivers, the middle ground between these extremes is less distinct. As we venture deeper into the draft, solid but not necessarily game-altering performances can yield significant victories.
Consider the case of Jamaal Williams, who secured an average of 0.3 FPOE last season, placing him at the 36th spot among all running backs. Notably, he ranked an impressive sixth in advance rate in Best Ball Mania III. Yet, a crucial element in fantasy success lies in understanding the market dynamics.
Williams defied the odds, as his expected points exceeded the expectations set by his Average Draft Position (ADP). While his points over expected held limited significance due to his 14th-round selection and his prominent role in a robust offensive scheme, he still became a key contributor. The presence of D’Andre Swift allowed Williams to shine even more brightly. In contrast, Najee Harris faced a different challenge. He needed to surpass the expected output based on his ADP, a task that proved arduous as he landed on boards early in the draft. Harris struggled to achieve this, yielding an unfortunate advance rate of merely eight percent—a figure starkly below the average advance rate of 50 percent (2-of-12).
In the initial stages of drafting, the pursuit revolves around securing elite runners who command three-down roles, possess a proximity to the end zone, and display prowess in receiving. As the draft progresses, the criteria can shift, allowing for selections that may not tick all the aforementioned boxes. Recognizing the steadiness of roles compared to efficiency, it’s prudent to target some of the seemingly mundane runners championed by Denny Carter. A notable example is Brian Robinson, a player he highlighted in an article, and one who ranks high on my list of desirable draft choices this year. Now, without further ado, let’s delve into the aspect that has captured your attention.
The Player Takes
Jonathan Taylor
In his rookie year, Taylor managed an average of 2.3 FPOE, which improved to an impressive five in 2021, securing his position as the RB1 overall. He even notched the second-highest yards gained after contact in a single season, falling behind only Derrick Henry’s remarkable 2020 performance. However, Taylor faced challenges last season, including a decline in his offensive line’s performance, struggling quarterbacks that ranked the offence 31st in EPA per dropback, and a nagging ankle injury he had to contend with. The Colts’ offensive line was initially ranked 10th heading into the season by Pro Football Focus. With a more athletic quarterback now leading the team, Taylor seems poised for a rebound, though his standoff with the front office raises some concerns. Conversations with Denny, Kerrane, and Patrick Daughtery on the Rotoworld Football Show suggest that Taylor is unlikely to sit out the 2023 season.
Despite these challenges, Taylor presents a perfect opportunity for a comeback, and his current draft position offers a substantial discount due to an unexpected holdout.
Tony Pollard
Pollard stood out last year, leading all running backs in FPOE per game. Impressively, he has consistently surpassed expectations in each of his four professional seasons. Since joining the NFL, Pollard has held the top position in yards gained per carry after contact, secured the fourth spot in missed tackles forced per carry, and claimed the fifth rank in explosive run rate. With Ezekiel Elliott out of the picture, Pollard’s prominence is further elevated, and he might become a topic of debate for the 1.01 spot next year.
Breece Hall
Despite being on the PUP list and rumours circulating about Dalvin Cook, Hall’s ADP has been plummeting as the season approaches. Hall’s draft position has seen a decline of half a round this summer, second only to Taylor among the first five rounds of drafts. While the uncertainty of Cook joining the team affects his fantasy prospects, Hall has displayed the potential to command around 20 touches per game, even if a veteran presence exists on the roster. He led all running backs in rushing yards over expected per attempt and excelled as a receiver. His FPOE average of 2.7 increased to 5.5 in his final four games. Despite his fourth-round ADP, the reduced risk of a slow start makes him an appealing option.
Kenneth Walker
Walker ranked 12th in rush yards over expected, thanks in part to several long touchdowns, which often lead to high FPOE. He secured a solid 2.2 points over expected per game as a rookie and notably dominated high-value carries for the Seahawks. While facing competition from Zach Charbonnet, Walker’s draft price reflects his status as a potential league-winning player.
D’Andre Swift
Swift’s potential is intriguing, but concerns arise due to his limited role in previous seasons. His former team viewed him as a role-player, and his current team plans to rotate him with at least two other backs. Despite this, Swift demonstrated his ability to exceed expectations, with FPOE averages of 2.1 and 1.5 per game. His limited weekly workload suggests he can outperform his role. Running behind a strong offensive line and benefiting from a quarterback who can manipulate opposing linebackers, Swift’s path to a Kamara-like season exists if he fulfils his advanced stats potential. Gaining an edge on passing downs from Kenneth Gainwell could be his key to success.
