Sports betting is one of the most popular forms of gambling out there, especially in Western culture. Sports betting has quickly become a very common pastime for sports fans who want to get more out of their favourite sports and test their knowledge.
What many sports bettors don’t understand, however, is the role that psychology plays in their betting strategies. In this article, we are going to take a look at the psychology of sports betting to understand not just why people bet but some of the most common mistakes made by bettors and how to rectify them so that you can maximise your betting return potential going forward.
Why Do People Bet
Before we get into how you can harness psychology to make more successful bets, first, we must understand why people bet in the first place. Looking at a survey from Statista in 2017, we can see that there are 8 main factors that encourage people to bet. They include:
- It makes the sport more enjoyable – 45%
- I like to have another activity while watching the sporting event – 38%
- It is a good way to compete with colleagues or friends – 34%
- I like the thrill of betting – 29%
- I enjoy the risk – 15%
- I like to test my sports knowledge – 14%
- It’s a ritual performed by my friends/colleagues – 12%
- Don’t know – 9%
Now, let’s take a look at some of the psychology behind betting habits and how you can avoid making classic mistakes on future sports bets. And hopefully make money online when sports betting.
Availability Heuristic
Heuristic is essentially another way of saying a rule of thumb, and availability heuristic refers to substituting easily remembered information in place of well-researched opinions. For example, in the real world, many people may say ‘have a safe flight’ as opposed to ‘drive safe’ even though the chances of being in a plane accident are much slimmer than in a car. Availability Heuristic is where we apply our knowledge of things that have had a greater emotional impact over things that are actually true. In betting, for example, you might watch a team score very early and be shocked by this. Going forward, when asked about the team or placing bets, you may be of the opinion that this team often scores early despite this not being true simply because it’s common for people to substitute well-thought-out ideas for the most easily accessible piece of information.
This bias can lead to poor bets as you could over or underestimate a team’s ability based on recent results. We recommend researching a team properly and using statistics to place bets and not your recent memory.
Gambler’s Fallacy
Gambler’s fallacy is a term that refers to the idea of bettors expecting a reversal in luck after a prolonged run of one outcome. Essentially, after a run of wins, bettors expect a loss. The most straightforward way to understand this fallacy is through coin tosses. If you flip a coin five times and they all land on heads, you would expect the sixth time to be tails, but this is an incorrect line of thinking. The gambler’s fallacy occurs because bettors expect results to be random and, therefore, that a random selection of numbers will eventually balance out just like they do over a large sample. This fallacy can be proved mathematically. If we go back to the coin toss, the probability of landing six heads in a row translates to 1.6%, so if five coins have been flipped and they all landed on heads, bettors assume the probability of it being tails next translates to 98%. This isn’t true, as every flip is independent from the last. Every flip has a 50% chance, regardless of previous results.
In sports betting, this is most commonly seen in teams or players who have had a poor run of games. Punters expect that they will ‘turn it around eventually’; however, this simply isn’t true. You should analyse teams using their current form and not regarding it because of an unproven concept. Using a service like Doc’s Sports is a good idea to help you form an objective opinion.
Hot Hand Phenomenon
The hot hand phenomenon is very similar to the gambler’s fallacy. However, the belief is flipped, and instead, bettors believe that teams who are on a hot streak are more likely to continue this. An example would be if a player scores four penalties, bettors would believe he has a higher chance of scoring the fifth due to his previous positive results.
Although form should be considered when betting, ‘purple patches’ of successful play are common in sports, and it is very crucial that you analyse each fixture holistically.
Sunk Cost Fallacy
The sunk cost fallacy is where we let irreversible investments influence our future decisions. We incorrectly become attached to our actions and try to regain the time, enjoyment or money from said activity by sticking with it instead of giving up. For example, a very simple example could be you and your partner going to the movies, and within 30 minutes, you realise it is the worst movie you have ever seen. If you fall victim to the sunk cost fallacy, you will stay for the rest of the movie despite knowing you won’t enjoy it because you don’t want to waste the money you spent on the ticket.
In betting, this is often seen through chasing losses, which is one of the most common and detrimental mistakes bettors can make. Chasing losses is where when bettors lose money on bets, they believe that they can make the money back and break even by placing more bets. Then, when they fail, they believe they could claw back some of the money by placing more bets. Not only does this not work, but it is also a very unhealthy and dangerous way to gamble!
Summary
These have been some of the most common mistakes made by sports bettors and the psychological reasons behind them. We hope these have been helpful in developing your understanding of how we place bets and what you can do to maximise your betting potential going forward.
