If you are looking for ways to assess the actual chances of an underdog winning a sporting event, you’ve come to the right place.
Let’s dive straight in to learn more about underdogs (aka outsiders or longshot bets). You can also find out when it’s worth placing a bet on underdogs or when to avoid placing bets on them.
What is an underdog?
An underdog is a sports team or individual not expected to win the event. Online sports betting operators who offer betting markets give underdogs less of a chance of winning, meaning worse odds than the favourite (the team/player expected to win) and a lower implied probability rate (IPR).
In other words, the underdog is the opposite of the favourite. However, it doesn’t necessarily mean underdogs will always lose. In fact, throughout the history of sports, many underdogs have shocked the sporting world and won.
Take horse racing, for example. Several outsiders have defied the odds and won the UK Grand National in Aintree, including the following iconic horse:
- Horse: Mon Mone. Year: 2009. Odds of winning: 100/1 (fractional odds), 101.00 (decimal odds), +10,000 (American/moneyline). IPR: 1.00%
- Horse: Last Suspect. Year: 1985. Odds of winning: 50/1 (fractional odds), 51.00 (decimal odds), +5,000 (American/moneyline). IPR: 2.00%
- Horse: Aurora’s Encore. Year: 2013. Odds of winning: 66/1 (fractional odds), 67.00 (decimal odds), +6,000 (American/moneyline). IPR: 1.50%
Is it worth placing an underdog bet?
Although the likelihood of an outsider winning is slim and only happens occasionally, the potential return is often too tempting, which is why many people like to place outside bets.
However, in some sporting events, the odds for the outsider to win may only differ slightly from the favourite. For example, if you look at the EPL odds for a match between Brentford and Liverpool, Liverpool would be the odds-on favourites, and Brentford would be the underdogs.
Although most people would expect Liverpool to win, Brentford could easily steal the win. Anything can happen in football, don’t forget, and the odds are never guaranteed to return a profit.
The odds for this particular event may look like this:
Liverpool might be the favourites to win at 3/5, which is 1.60 in decimal odds and -167 in American/moneyline odds, with a 62.50% implied probability rate of winning.
Brentford (the underdogs) might be priced at around 19/5 (4.80 or +380), with a 20.80% IPR. In other words, it might be worth a bet on Brentford to win.
If you were to place a $/€/£10.00 bet on Brentford to win with these odds, and they win, your total returns would be $/€/£48.00 (including a $/€/£38.00 profit and your initial $/€/£10.00 stake returned).
In comparison, if you bet on Liverpool to win with the same 3/5 odds mentioned above, and they win, it means your total returns would be just $/€/£16.00 ($/€/£6.00 profit + $/€/£6.00 stake returned).
As you can see, these underdog odds are worth taking, especially if you’re a Brentford fan or have studied the latest team news and statistics and believe Brentford have a good chance of winning.
How else can I assess an underdog’s chances of winning on a fully licensed and regulated online sports betting site?
The other way you can assess an underdog’s chances of winning is to view the odds in the American/moneyline format. For example, the favourites will always have a minus (-) sign before the odds, and the underdogs will always have a plus (+) sign before the odds.
Final note
When betting on the underdog, always do your research into an event before placing a bet and try not to go with terrible odds that are highly unlikely to win. Try to gamble responsibly by placing strategic bets.
In certain cases, betting on the underdog is worth it, but most of the time, it’s best to avoid placing underdog bets. Try to understand what the odds and implied probability rates are trying to tell you about the most likely outcome/result. It will help you place more informed bets.
