The first weekend of June sees the attention of the horse racing world firmly focused on Epsom. That’s when the Oaks will be held. Just who is expected to come out on top in this historic classic?
Friday June 6 is the date when the fillies take centre stage with the Epsom Oaks. After winning the 1000 Guineas earlier this month, Desert Flower is the favourite online to go on and win the Oaks.
The Charlie Appelby runner will be running over a distance that is half a mile further than raced in the 1000 Guineas. When you are deciding just who to place your bet on for this race, the distance must be considered. Can your selection be effective over a mile-and- a-half or will the additional distance be their Achilles heel?
A look at the breeding of a horse can reveal some fascinating facts. If the sire and/or dam excelled over sprint distances, then backing their offspring to win over 12 furlongs isn’t a great idea.
Desert Flower has an unbeaten record after her first five races. Her sire is Night of Thunder which is slightly concerning. That runner won the 2000 Guineas in both the UK and Ireland but didn’t race over 12 furlongs.
There’s no real indication of success over a-mile-and-a-half either from her dam Promising Run. Desert Flower did run on well in the 1000 Guineas and is 3/1 to win the Oaks but backers may well get nervous in the final stages of the race.
Second in the betting market is Falakeyah at odds of 10/1 based on the current bookies’ offers at Horse.bet UK. With a price like that, an each-way bet would be successful if the runner is placed in the first three. This contender is trained by Owen Burrows and wasn’t seen on a racecourse until November of last year.
Her successful debut was on the all-weather track at Wolverhampton. This year saw her turf debut take place and it produced a win in the ten-furlong Pretty Polly Stakes which was run at Newmarket.
Again, there’s the question of whether this runner will be able to produce the goods over a couple more furlongs. That does look likely as her sire New Bay did put in some good performances over a-mile-and-a-half. With likely improvement to come after just two races, Falakeyah may well give Desert Flower plenty to think about at Epsom.
It regularly pays to back an Aidan O’Brien runner. He has several contenders in this year’s Epsom Oaks. At present, the one with the shortest odds is Minnie Hawk at 10/1. Again, this looks worth an each-way bet.
The three-year-old will head to Epsom with two wins from her three races. Another important factor to consider is whether a horse has shown good form as a three-year-old and improved on their performances from last season.
That’s definitely been so for Minnie Hawk who recently won the Cheshire Oaks at Chester. O’Brien likes running his horses on that track as he believes it teaches them a lot. Also, that Cheshire Oaks win was over a mile-and-three-and-a-half furlongs so Minnie Hawk should appreciate the distance to be run over at Epsom.
O’Brien also has Giselle entered for the Epsom Oaks and is currently 12/1 to win the classic. The Frankel filly has also had a major victory this year. The WIlliam Hill Oaks Trial was won at Lingfield and again that was run over a-mile-and-three-and-a-half furlongs. Giselle only faced two rivals in that race but won by nine lengths. Further improvement will most likely be needed at Epsom.
Lake Victoria is also trained by Aiden O’Brien. This filly won all four of her races as a two-year-old. That included a trip to the USA to win a Breeders’ Cup race. However, her seasonal debut produced only a sixth place finish in the 1000 Guineas, two-and-a-quarter lengths behind Desert Flower. At present, Lake Victoria is 14/1 to win at Epsom but will need to bounce back from that defeat.
If you fancy backing an outsider, then Go Go Boots may be placed at a good price. The John and Thady Gosden runner is 33/1 to win the Oaks but has won both of her races. One of those was this season over ten furlongs at Lingfield.
Both of her wins have come on all-weather tracks and this race will be a big step up in class. This looks like a runner who has a lot of potential improvement to come and at 33/1 would produce a decent profit if placed.
Desert Flower is the one to beat at Epsom if getting the distance. Aiden O’Brien’s contenders will do all they can to stop the Appelby runner in what promises to be a fascinating race.
